New Listings SLIDE in DENVER

Now it is a trend!

For the 2nd month in a row there has been a substantial drop in the number of new listings entering the Denver Real Estate market. Utilizing data from the past 6 years the average number of new single family listings entering the competitive Denver market dropped over 16% in April which followed a 20% drop in March. What this means to the public is the inventory will start to shrink as those properties on the market will sell. This is the first marker of a bottom!

Practical terms? If one were to buy a home today they would probably get the greatest CHOICE of properties and at the same time the BEST VALUE. We saw this happen in the late 1980s after the oil bubble busted in Denver ( it will bust) and the first indicator of a strengthening market was the reduction in homes coming on the market. Folks who did not need to sell, didn't. Folks who said "If I cannot get $X for my house, I won't sell" and the Realtors who would take those same listings could not stay in the business.

So, we are at the cusp! It is time to invest, move up, or actualize that dream of being in that bigger home. Take the step now.

The suburbs where we have not seen substantial decreases in values (each neighborhood has its own trends and real estate is VERY localized) such as Highlands Ranch, Lone Tree, Centennial, Englewood, Littleton, Parker and Castle Rock are prime right now. Their inventory will be the first to disappear and therefore we will start to see days on the market drop and prices increase.

If there is a move in the your future, you have good credit, and at least 3% down payment, now is the time. It takes a bold heart to move forward but this is a real market event that typically will signal a change in the market direction. This is not a time to think for too much longer. Get some good counsel, weigh the options, and get moving! relocating! heading towards your goal!

23 years of experience can go to work for you or your friends, learning about your new home town! Whether it is Highlands Ranch, Lone Tree, Littleton, Castle Rock, Centennial, Englewood, Parker, Elizabeth, Larkspur, Franktown, Kiowa, or anywhere in metro Denver Colorado, we offer real estate advice, properties for sale, multiple listing service, property listings, mls, all available at www.DenverRelocation.com. Drop me a note to pete@Denverrelocation.com

Denver Home Sale Statistics!!!! OOOOh I want to so bad!

Every month I post something about the Denver Real Estate market statistics, and it gets so boring! I am sorry, but last month I saw a serious drop. I have not seen any significant changes yet this month, but I gather my information late in the cycle...on or about the 15th of the month. Why? Well I know Real Estate agents tend to be busy at the end of the month closing deals, and sometimes with every thing else they are doing, forget to enter the data into Metrolist, the Denver area multiple listing service. So I give them a few extra days to get entered. Yet today I am chomping at the bit!



Recap: last month we saw a 5 year average broken by a 20% drop in new listings coming on the market. This is through out metro Denver! Wow, drop from a five year average of 6756 brand new listings for single family homes entering the market in March to 5377 in March 2008! That is a 20.4% drop in new listings! That is a big change. And I expect this month to be very similar! When selecting properties to show (this is not statistical) there just are not allot!

Now what do you do with this news? If you are considering selling your home to move up, please do it before the prices on the new house goes up! Here is why:

Your home has lost some of its value, say 10% over the last 2 years so instead of being worth $300,000 it is now worth $270,000. (ouch) However the move up home you want to buy has also suffered that same 10% loss so instead of it being a $500,000 home now it is a $450,000 home. You made $20,000 by moving now!

Hmmm? Too good to be true? Not with skillful negotiation and proper planning. Lets take another look: Your $500,000 home lost 10% of it's value and is now worth $450,000. OKAY? the target home you want was in an upper price range close to $850,000 and they too lost 10% of their value so it is now worth $765,000. Some one (you) just gained the $35,000 that was left on the table by taking advantage of a down real estate market.

But why do this now? Why not wait for a while? This is where the statistics come in...sometimes you only know where the top or bottom of a market is by analysing data. When I saw that big drop last month I saw something like we saw in 1988 that flagged the beginning of the end of our local real estate meltdown. So, seeing it again should flag the likelihood that something good is about to happen....demand stays steady and prices will go up! This is where experience plays a key role in your next move! So my recommendation: Buy Denver Colorado real estate NOW!



So, if this kind of adice could be valuable to you or your friends, put my nearly 23 years of experience to work for you, learning about your new home town! Whether it is Highlands Ranch, Lone Tree, Littleton, Castle Rock, Centennial, Englewood, Parker, Elizabeth, Larkspur, Franktown, Kiowa, or anywhere in metro Denver Colorado, we offer real estate advice, properties for sale, multiple listing service, property listings, mls, all available at www.DenverRelocation.com. Drop me a note to pete@Denverrelocation.com

Foreclosures & Repos...They still exist in Highlands Ranch

Automated e-mail searches sometimes can be good, not just a cluttering of the in box. You can sign up for one at http://www.denverrelocation.com/ or by clicking the button to the right. A point to be made though; "DENVER" is too huge a search area. It needs to be a little more specific. A suburban city or zip code helps. Check out the properties page as there are some searches already set up.

Yesterday and today I was notified of 3 "higher end" foreclosures in Highlands Ranch & Polo Run. Want to set up an appointment, give us a call.

So, if this kind of service could be valuable to you or your friends, put my 22 years of experience to work for you, learning about your new home town! Whether it is Highlands Ranch, Lone Tree, Littleton, Castle Rock, Centennial, Englewood, Parker, Elizabeth, Larkspur, Franktown, Kiowa, or anywhere in metro Denver Colorado, we offer real estate advice, properties for sale, multiple listing service, property listings, mls, all available at www.DenverRelocation.com. Drop me a note to pete@Denverrelocation.com

78% of Cities INCREASE in VALUE per National Association of Realtors

Market Anomalies SKEW Home Price NATION-WIDE! Denver is still in the TOP FIVE! Denver Colorado not a "BUYER's MARKET" NO 6 month supply of properties. Brittany asks "Does this make any sense?"



That is pretty much the gist of the story at Market Watch. Taking the 2 major indexes to task that have created the gloom and doom reports of the housing market. Market Watch has interviewed the perpetrators and read their own reports BEFORE writing the headlines. Both the National Association of Realtors and Standard & Poors/Case-Shiller Home Price Index agreed their reports were giving imprecise data and impression to the public. And specifically noted is The Associated Press's mis-application of the reported data.



In my opinion the press never read the reports, just the executive summary or headlines, then write their own SENSATIONAL HEADLINE and publishes their story. But the underlying story is never published. So here is the story I am referencing http://tinyurl.com/5334u3.



The real point is that real estate is local, and I do not mean Denver local. I mean LOCAL LOCAL down to the neighborhood in Highlands Ranch or Littleton. And in some cases down to the address of xyz Weatherstone Circle, Highlands Ranch, Co 80126 do to the orientation or street noise. When you hire a Realtor to represent you you get the benefit of their experience selling in all Denver neighborhoods, their stories, their good deals and bad deals, their price reductions and their multiple offer stories, the good inspections and bad. The experience factor cannot be ignored in today's Denver Real Estate market. And allot of that is the pricing approach you should take and then the marketing to get your home sold.



For years there has been a neighborhood in the southeast metro Denver area that it turns out was over-priced in Englewood Colorado, actually part of un-incorporated Arapahoe County. There were bad loans given by the developer and inflated home prices to go with them. Finally, the prices in that neighborhood have gotten to a point that I can recommend it as a "deal" for a buyer. Now, if I were the press, there are at least 3 stories in this comment; one about a bad developer for the "investigative reporters" and one about plummeting prices and the third about rebounding market conditions!



Well, a month ago I told you about a hard bounce in the inventory. Stay tuned and we will see what happens in the Denver real estate market in about 2 weeks...oh by the way, I always try to pull my data on the same day every month. That way I can be consistent and no there are fewer anomalies. So when I publish a chart with 6 years of NEW LISTING HISTORY such as I did here http://tinyurl.com/5jo7g9 the ups and downs would not be because the reporting date shifted closer to the first of the month. Figures don't lie but liars figure? That is a way the statistics can be manipulated.



Insight and experience help guide you through the sale of your home, or the purchase of a new one, or both! Yes we can do that! Whether it is Highlands Ranch, Lone Tree, Littleton, Castle Rock, Centennial, Englewood Colorado, Parker, Elizabeth, Larkspur, Franktown, Kiowa, or anywhere in metro Denver Colorado, we offer real estate advice, properties for sale, multiple listing service, property listings, mls, all available at www.DenverRelocation.com. Drop me a note to pete@Denverrelocation.com

Denver New Listings Chart

Sit back and watch the market if you cannot stand the "pressure" but here is what will actually determine the prices next year. Supply.

Represented in this chart are the "new listings" single family homes first time on the market with original list dates in March in Denver. Left to right 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 on the far right. As you can see, even though last year we had 6426 houses come up for sale in the Denver market, this year we had overr 1000 fewer; a 20% drop in the previous 5 year average. Normally I say there was a plus or minus 5% increase or decrease, but I have never (except in 1989 where I do not have data) seen this type of anomily. The next thing we should see is a drop in the overall days on the market, but that will not occur for a few months and will be very gradual.

I am saying we hit the bottom in the Denver real estate values. There will be some homes who still drop prices and sell "lower than they should", but the time is now if you have a move in your future or if you are thinking about investing in rental properties in Denver. We should see additional months where fewer homes come on the market which will confirm this. But we smacked it in March. Check back here April 20, or click the subscribe button.

Insight like this comes from years of experience selling Denver real estate. Let me help you. Whether it is Highlands Ranch, Lone Tree, Littleton, Castle Rock, Centennial, Englewood, Parker, Elizabeth, Larkspur, Franktown, Kiowa, or anywhere in metro Denver Colorado, we offer real estate advice, properties for sale, multiple listing service, property listings, mls, all available at www.DenverRelocation.com. Drop me a note to pete@Denverrelocation.com

ZERO DOWNPAYMENT? Denver Home Search?

I got an e-mail asking a fairly standard question...where can I find a zero down loan???

Here is the reply that I think answers 2 questions, where can I get a zero down loan, and what are the alternatives? With all the press about the credit crisis one would think the message gets through, but maybe not?


I will guess the house will be in Littleton, Centennial or Englewood. All
established and mature areas of Denver. The City of Littleton probably has more code enforcement than anyplace else, but the areas known as Littleton
(unincorporated Jefferson County) mostly do not.

There is only a single challenge I foresee, unless one of you is a veteran, and
that is zero down payment. Zero Down loans disappeared in Denver about 6 months ago.
However a veteran who has their discharge papers in order can get a zero
down VA loan for their Denver home.

There are no other loans currently available at good interest rates (less than 9%). And just so it is clear, I do not even know where you might find one at this rate. Loans with this interest rate are known as b-c PAPER and are the reason we have the current "credit crunch" you have heard about in the news. Once the wall street folks figured out they were not a good deal, they quit buying them from the mortgage companies, and so the mortgage companies quit "originating" them. There simply is no zero down except for VA.

Please do not mis-read me on this, but I do not want you dis-appointed. And I do want you to be able to buy a home.

There are FHA loans available with as little as 3% down and that money can be a
gift from Mom & Dad or?. In your stated purchase price that is about $7,000. However, they do insist you have something in the basket before they underwrite the loan. And these interest rates are in the 6% range. So it is worth the effort.

Therefore, were I you, before I did anything else, I would be in touch with
any of the lenders on my page at www.denverrelocation.com/lenders.html. Figure out the loan and get ready from that end. Then we start the house hunting to find that perfect home.

About these lenders; just so you know, I do not receive any compensation or pay from them, nor do I want any. I do know I can trust them to do good work for you and give you excellent advice.

Should this kind of service could be valuable to you or your friends, put my 22 years of experience to work for you, learning about your new home town! Whether it is Highlands Ranch, Lone Tree, Littleton, Castle Rock, Centennial, Englewood, Parker, Elizabeth, Larkspur, Franktown, Kiowa, or anywhere in metro Denver Colorado, we offer real estate advice, properties for sale, multiple listing service, property listings, mls, all available at www.DenverRelocation.com. Drop me a note to pete@Denverrelocation.com

Help me out here! Ashton begs? Who is Ashton? Another Denver Post

Last week I made a note about a drop in the new listings in the Denver real estate market (see this link).
I am guessing I must the only one to notice as no one has commented. Every year for the last 5 there have been 6756 NEW MLS listings of single family homes (original list date in March; not re-lists) enter the Denver Colorado housing market. This year there were 5377. That represents a 20% decrease and by all the figuring I can do, that is a huge indicator! Weeks before this it was noted to me that the lender owned property listings were going down in the Denver multiple listing service (Metrolist).

Now, what does it mean? These 2 things seem indicative to me of 1: Sellers have said 'to heck with it, unless I need to sell, I will wait'. and 2: The bank foreclosures are getting bought out of or absorbed by the market.

#1 certainly seems true based on the numbers of folks who HAVE NOT (you can!-) PLEASE DO) called me this year to get their home sold. It is interesting because there are markets where we have still had appreciation in Denver. Parts of Highlands Ranch and Littleton have been un-affected by any price downturn. The demographics simply will not support it. And yet there are parts of Aurora that have seen a 10-20% value adjustment down. That demographic is more of a starter home. Yet we are only 20 minutes apart! And one part of Castle Rock withSo the fear can be misplaced, and it can be true. But that is what the TV ads tell you: Real Estate is Local.

Another note I made was that the Denver market was #14 in major city's (click here for details) as far as depreciation was concerned. That does not sound good, but our average asking price only dropped .55% or slightly over half of 1%. That too would support the "real estate is local" comment.

You did not ask for it but here is my advice, have someone look at your home and see how marketable it is. Do not take the press's interpretation of our market as fact. And remember, there may be greater value in the home you buy than the one you sell. In other words, buying a really "GOOD DEAL" may make it worth leaving the place you do not want to be. Always BUY UP in a down market!

#2 is also true...as I show property (one of the benefits to having both a listing and selling broker) I get to see the market as a whole. And what I have seen is the bank owned properties are not as plentiful as they were at the beginning of the year. That is a gut level check but the south metro Denver Real Estate market seems vibrant. The over inventory in the Denver real estate market is being absorbed so if it is time for a move, make it soon!

I am calling the bottom! (Now for my favorite movie quote..."That is mighty brave talk for a one eyed fat man, Rooster!"-True Grit).

If this kind of hands on interpretation of data and markets could be valuable to you or your friends, INTRODUCE US! Put my 22+ years of experience to work for you, learning about your new home town! Whether it is Highlands Ranch, Lone Tree, Littleton, Castle Rock, Centennial, Englewood, Parker, Elizabeth, Larkspur, Franktown, Kiowa, or anywhere in metro Denver Colorado, we offer real estate advice, properties for sale, multiple listing service, property listings, mls, all available at www.DenverRelocation.com. Drop me a note to pete@Denverrelocation.com